Cepea, October 2, 2026 – Rains registered in September continued to delay the sugarcane harvest in Central-Southern Brazil, reducing sugar production. Thus, with supply restricted, prices continued to rise in late September.
From August 31 to September 30, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for white crystal sugar (Icumsa color from 130 to 180, São Paulo State) rose by 6.48%, closing at BRL 121.12 per 50-kg bag on Sept. 30.
A survey from Platts (S&P Global), released on September 23, estimates that Central-Southern Brazil produced 2.09 million tons of sugar in the first fortnight of September, a sharp 42.5% decrease compared to the same period in 2025. Sugarcane crushing dropped 35.4% in the same comparison, to 29.8 million tons, while the total recoverable sugar (TRS) content decreased to 147.53 kg/ton, from 154.59 kg/ton a year earlier.
Consulting firms have lowered their projections for the 2026/27 crop in Central-Southern Brazil. Hedgepoint cut its sugar production estimate by 1.4 million tons, to 38.5 million tons, due to a production mix less oriented toward sugar and the lower sugar content in sugarcane. StoneX now forecasts sugar production at 38 million tons and estimates that around 22 million tons of sugarcane will only be crushed in 2027/28. With less sugar expected to be produced in the coming months, supply in the domestic market is likely to remain restricted, continuing to support prices.
According to a survey released by Safras & Mercado, 2.411 million tons of sugar were scheduled for shipment at Brazilian ports in the week ended September 23, of which around 2.13 million tons corresponded to VHP sugar. The significant volume scheduled for shipment reinforces the importance of Brazilian supply in meeting demand in the international raw sugar market and helps keep product availability relatively comfortable in the short term.
On the other hand, prospects for global supply in the 2026/27 season indicate lower availability in important producing regions. In the European Union, the reduction in the area planted with sugar beets, combined with the impacts of heat and water deficit on crops, is expected to result in lower sugar production. In India, the sharp decrease in production in the previous season and the consequent reduction in domestic stocks are raising concerns among market players about sugar availability. In Thailand, expectations point to another decrease in production, due to unfavorable weather conditions and the lower attractiveness of sugarcane compared to competing crops.
(Cepea-Brazil)