Cepea, October 2, 2026 – Players are concerned about a potentially lower supply of good-quality wheat, as this may increase Brazil’s dependence on imports and also drive domestic prices up. The low availability continues to be linked to uncertainties regarding the results of the 2026 crop, given conditions observed in the field – unfavorable weather has been reducing quality and may also lower yields. This scenario, coupled with the cereal appreciation in the international market in the partial of September, has been supporting domestic prices.
In September, the average wheat price in Paraná was BRL 1,502.25/ton, 5.1% higher than in August 2026 and 10.1% above that registered in September 2025. This is the highest value since July 2025, in real terms (values were deflated by the IGP-DI from August 2026). In Rio Grande do Sul, the average was BRL 1,390.92/ton, 4.9% higher than in August 2026 and 9% up in the annual comparison, and the highest real value since May 2025. In Santa Catarina, the average price was BRL 1,428.39/ton, the highest since August 2025, with increases of 4.7% in the month and 3.8% compared to September 2025. In São Paulo, in turn, the average reached BRL 1,512.81/ton, the highest since July/25, rises of 5% in the monthly comparison and a significant 19% in the annual comparison.
HARVEST AND FIELD CONDITIONS – According to data released by Conab, 21.6% of the area allocated to wheat crops in Brazil had been harvested by September 18.
In Paraná, according to Seab/Deral data, yield and production estimates for the 2026 crop were revised down. Yield, previously forecast at 54 60-kg bags per hectare, was reduced to 49 bags per hectare due to above-average temperatures and excessive rainfall in August and September. With the area estimated at 727 thousand hectares, production is expected to total 2.13 million tons. In Rio Grande do Sul, according to data released by Emater/RS, harvesting began in the northwest region and reached 1% of the area by September 24.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN BRAZIL – New estimates from Conab, released on September 15, reinforce the upward price trend in the domestic market. For the 2026 wheat crop, Conab indicates reductions in area, production and productivity, associated with producers’ caution regarding weather risks.
In September, Conab estimated the area at 1.927 million hectares, the smallest since 2017 (when it totaled 1.916 million hectares), down 1% from the August 2026 estimate and a significant 21.2% compared to 2025. Production decreased by 1.3% in the monthly comparison and 27.1% in the annual comparison, and is forecast at 5.74 million tons, the lowest since 2019 (5.154 million tons). Productivity, in turn, dropped by 0.3% from August to September and by 7.5% compared to the previous crop, and is estimated at 2.978 tons per hectare.
Initial stocks for September 2026 are forecast at 1.765 million tons, up 19.2% from August 2026. This increase offset the reduction in production and imports in the domestic supply balance (initial stocks + production + imports), which rose by 1.1% between August and September. Thus, imports were revised down by 0.7% in the monthly comparison; however, compared to the previous season, they are expected to increase by 15%. Lastly, the ending stocks estimate was raised to 1.067 million tons, a volume 18.5% above that projected in the previous report, but 39.5% below the forecast for the 2025 crop.
(Cepea-Brazil)